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為期兩天的2016蒙古國經濟論壇當地時間3月31日在烏蘭巴托落幕，本屆論壇的主題是“教訓、挑戰和應對”，蒙古國總統和總理分別在論壇發表演講，均對蒙古國當前經濟困境的原因進行反思。

蒙古國總統額勒貝格道爾吉指出，當前經濟低迷的主要原因在于蒙古國近幾年糟糕的政治現狀，許多蒙古國政治家為了選舉而進行不負責任的政治表演，一些議員置國家利益于不顧，阻止一些大型礦業開發項目。

蒙古國總統額勒貝格道爾吉：五至十年前，當礦產品價格高的時候，如果積極推動礦產品出口，企業就不會面臨當前這樣的困難，幾年前確實是發展經濟的好機會，但是蒙古國卻喪失了唾手可得的良機。

蒙古國總理賽汗比勒格也批評一些政治家打著愛國的旗號來阻止相關大型礦業項目的進展，影響了蒙古國對外來投資的吸引力。賽汗比勒格在演講中說，要解決當前的經濟困境，各政黨和民眾要革新對經濟發展的認識，要與經濟發展中的消極力量作斗爭。

烏蘭巴托郵報4月1日電

April 1st, 2016 | Posted by The UB Post

Mongolian Economic Forum focuses on solutions for diversifying the economy

By Ch.KHALIUN

The seventh annual Mongolian Economic Forum held from March 30 to 31, under the slogan, “Lessons, Challenges, and Solutions”, underlined solutions for diversifying the nation’s economy and determining its future trends.

During the opening ceremony of the forum, Prime Minister Ch.Saikhanbileg emphasized that current economic difficulties in Mongolia were not impacted by any external impacts, but by poor state policies.

The PM said that since Mongolia adopted democracy, the country has faced several economic challenges, some of which derived from domestic issues and some not. He underlined that when Mongolia’s economy was improving, Mongolians made a choice to expand its consumption, not learning from its prior mistakes and crises.

“When the prices for coal were drastically increasing in 2011, Mongolia could have move forward on Tavan Tolgoi, and started building its railway. And if government didn’t take back TT from the private sector in 2013, they would have completed the railway and Mongolia’s coal export would have looked differently,” said the PM.

Ch.Saikhanbileg stressed, “Current difficulties facing the country can be considered not as the world’s, but Mongolia’s; not business, but political; and not economical, but mental diffulties. In order to overcome difficulties, poltical parties, the state, and the public need to treat their poltical and economic mentality, otherwise, the nation’s politics and economics won’t be treated.”

Saikhanbileg noted that a country can’t be developed based only on its natural resources, and Mongolia needs advanced technology and qualified personnel. He underlined that Mongolia needs to develop other sectors and diversify the economy.

Even though Finance Minister B.Bolor reported last week that the government’s overall debt has reached seven billion USD, during his speech, the PM noted that the government’s debt is 4.9 billion USD and Mongolia’s total debt owed to commercial banks and the private sector has reached 21 billion USD.（巴圖君在這里禁不住感慨一下：my God，一個300萬人口的國家總負債居然達到了210億美元，人均7000美元！！！當然，210億美元中只有部分是屬于政府債務。按照財政部長上周的說法，政府債務為70億美元；而按照總理演講中提到的說法，政府債務為49億美元。即便是49億美元分攤到300萬人口頭上，人均也“拉“1600多美元的“饑荒”。）

Director of International Finance Corporation’s East-Asia Department Vivek Pathak underlined that Mongolia needs to equally develop other sectors, and not focus only on the mining sector. “By developing all sectors, including tourism, agriculture, and focusing on meat exports, Mongolia will overcome economic difficulty and become a big player in the global market,” said Pathak.（巴圖君為這老兄的觀點點贊，在當前形勢下，蒙古國經濟中難得的亮點也算是出路吧，在于發展旅游、農業和肉類出口等產業，不能再延續過度依賴采礦業的老路。在這些領域，應該說，中國政府對蒙古國釋放了極大的善意和給予了不小的支持。對于想投資蒙古國或與蒙古國開展貿易的朋友們而言，這幾個領域可以多關注一下。）

The Chairman of the Office of the President, P.Tsagaan, said that he hopes the issues and solutions discussed during this year’s economic forum will be important in determining the nation’s future economic trends.

Attending the second day of the forum, President Ts.Elbegdorj emphasized that if Mongolia had implemented its mega projects earlier, the nation’s economy wouldn’t be facing its current difficulties. Ts.Elbegdorj underlined that because the country’s economic situation is difficult, seniors and women take out loans against welfare allowances for food and medicine. He added that the numbers of financially viable entities are decreasing day by day, and they are taking out loans to pay employee salaries.

“Mongolia’s budget sees approximately one trillion MNT in deficits annually, and an amendment is made to the state budget. Amending the budget means cutting loans for citizens and businesses. If we had implemented mega projects, many new jobs would have been created and entities would have money. Mongolia is not a luxury country that can lose opportunities. We don’t always get chances. We are losing our opportunities because of politics. That’s why we need to talk about politics not economics. We need regulations on making politicians accountable,” the Mongolian President said.（巴圖君特別認同總統的這個觀點：因為政治原因，我們正在失去很多機會。這也是為什么我們需要討論政治而不是經濟。我們需要建立讓政治家負起責任來的規則。）

The second day of the forum was held under the theme of “Business Environment”.

On the second day of the forum, Director of Mongol Idea Kh.Khaliunbat underlined that other countries don’t succeed in implementing the mortgage loan programs being carried out in Mongolia. He said that available apartments have been in excessive supply several times. “Prices for apartments fall when surplus exceeds demand, in accordance with market principles. The prices for apartments are not decreasing in Mongolia, and apartments worth 8.7 trillion MNT are frozen in the domestic market,” Khaliunbat claimed.

Subconferences of the forum were held on “Safe Food – Sustainable and Efficient Business”, “Social Insurance Upgrade”, “Partnership for Development”, and “Accurate and Capable Government”.

Organizers of the forum underlined that this year’s forum focused on solutions, while forums held in previous years discussed only challenges and issues that need to be tackled, and were not focused on solutions.

They also underlined that over the past three years, the forum organizers followed a policy to not invite foreigners to the forum. They said that Mongolia needs a podium for discussing its domestic issues. The organizers announced that they are going to hold a business summit in June with foreign investors.

Speaker of Parliament Z.Enkhbold presented closing remarks at the two-day forum.

巴圖君小結語：

關于蒙古國的投資環境及從官方到民間的對華態度，一直想寫點東西與大家分享，讓大家了解一個真實客觀的蒙古國，既非從百度搜到的那些“一夫多妻”、“****”之類的智商不達標人士津津樂道的蒙古國，也非部分不良商業中介或翻譯及“割草隊”口中充滿商機的蒙古國。歡迎大家多關注蒙古資訊平臺，巴圖君會在今后陸續寫一些原創文章，為大家全方位解讀蒙古國。

總的來說，現在的蒙古國，機會少，風險大。當然，任何事物都具有雙面性。禍兮，福之所倚，福兮，禍之所伏。收益和風險是成正比的。

蒙古國總統和總理在本次經濟論壇上對這些年蒙古國經濟敗局的反思還比較客觀，對于改善蒙古國投資環境開了個好頭。但是，政治精英的正確觀點，未必會在當前被廣大基層民眾認可和接受。多數人在切身經歷著經濟低迷帶來的生活水準的下降，心中有不滿和怨氣，他們完全有理由認為是政府不行。大呼拉爾選舉即將到來，且看蒙古國民眾的選擇吧，也希望能平穩進行。選舉結果在一定程度上也能反映出蒙古國民眾的水準。